
A 2008 report by the Urban Land Institute includes information from several studies that predict, among other trends, a significant decrease in the demand for McMansions by 2025. The report is part of a larger 2008 ULI publication called "Growing Cooler" that explains how compact development and small-space housing are integral to improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions...
The decrease in demand for McMansions (and increase in demand for condos, townhouses, and apartments) is tied into several factors including a rise in urbanization, compact development, skyrocketing energy costs, and the necessity to change our nation's driving patterns if we want to counteract the effects of global warming. A brief rundown of the stats:
The Stats on Driving: Why Compact Development Matters
- The Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act would require the US to cut CO2 emissions by 60 to 80 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2050.
- The U.S. Department of Energy predicts a 48 percent increase in driving between 2005 and 2030.
- Without compact development, more cars on the road will counteract the benefits of fuel-efficient cars and low carbon-content fuels.
The Stats on Housing: Demand for McMansions is Decreasing
- Through 2025, aging baby boomers and residents without children will account for 90 percent of new housing demand in America.
- Single-person households will account for 1/3 of new housing demand through 2025.
- A study conducted by the American Planning Association predicts that by 2025 demand for attached housing (apartments, condos) and small homes will increase by 35 million units, while demand for large lots (big homes, McMansions) will decrease by 1.5 million units.
Benefits of Compact Development and Small Homes
- When development occurs in compact patterns (i.e. walkable cities with small and attached housing), driving is reduced by 20 to 40 percent.
- The cities with the most potential to reduce driving are those with dense populations, high expected growth rates, and mixed-use neighborhoods.
- Studies conducted in partnership with public health researchers show links between walkable neighborhoods and lower incidents of obesity.
- A city’s energy efficiency increases with compact development.
To buy the book,
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What do you think? Are McMansions on the way out or so you see a different trend from your neck of the woods?
Photos (Clockwise): weeHouse, Small Space Solutions from AT House Tours, Texas Tiny House, Clip File: 10 Small Space Solutions
they're out
view ella!'s profile
"Are McMansions on the way out?"
Let's hope so - but the problem with them is that they're configured in such a way (double-height great rooms, massive spa baths, open staircases, etc.) that makes it near impossible to sub-divide them into apartments or duplexes the way large old victorians were...
...so what we'll end up with all the foreclosures and job losses are entire outlying suburban subdivisions that will be crime-ridden ghettos filled with Meth Labs, Indoor Pot Farms, squatters, etc. and/or abandoned buildings simply stripped of all wiring, plumbing, HVAC equipment and other recyclables by vandals looking for scrap-value cash.
view bepsf's profile
One of the best docs I've seen in recent years is "The End of Suburbia", made here in Canada. The trailer in the link is a bit sensational, but the doc itself questions the sustainability of surburban McMansions very effectively.
http://www.endofsuburbia.com/
view lightspeed's profile
I used to think McMansions were out, but yesterday on HGTV, I saw a "House Hunters" episode in which a couple with 3 kids and a lot of money went looking for a house on a lake in/around Minneapolis. In one house, which was more than 4,000 square feet, the wife stood in the second family room and said, "It's nice but it feels a little small." One of the houses they looked at was 5,000 square feet and newly built. So I'm not going to get my hopes up about the death of McMansions just yet.
view palindrome's profile
ha! i saw that episode!
i do hope they're out - such a drain on everything, land, energy, effort, money, etc.
view houseno8's profile
My parents bought their McMansion two years ago and already hate it. Even ex-Angelenos like them have to admit suburbia is eventually going to die.
view Stiletto's profile
I hope so. I'm so over houses with too much wasted space and no personality.
I'm also over having to drive everywhere. I don't, because I live in an area where I can walk/take public transit, but when I go visit friends everything is 15 minutes away by car. Yuck.
http://embritadesign.blogspot.com
view EmmieB's profile
Suburban McMansions are such a waste, and only a small percentage of the population can even buy them, but that was all they were builiding for quite some time..."Starting at ONLY $700,000!!!" was everywhere and it made me sick. It seemed elitist to me, making it very clear the type of person they wanted in their neighborhood. The past few years, however, I have seen more and more neighborhoods being built with smaller townhomes, condos, and even smaller homes. Not all of us even want McMansions. The builders complained they couldn't sell them...yet kept building them....WTF
view amiencc's profile
Ha! Palindrome, I hear you - but take heart in the fact that the HGTV turnaround is quite slow- friends of mine were filmed last year (07) for a Design on a Dime episode set to air . . . in 2010.
view MCNicole's profile
pleeeaaase let them become obsolete. not only irresponsible, but gaudy and ugly
view formosagirl's profile
I am all for smaller houses of various architectural styles.
view Seaside's profile
With all of this scary economy stuff going on lately, I was JUST thinking about the glut of mcmansions and wondering if it ever came to it, would they divied those houses like they did in the depression. (I live in one of those turn of the century split-up homes now.)
I'm not sure if it would be impossible to divide up those mcmansions, though. Probably the biggest issue would be to get the municipalities to go along with the idea. But if it was a matter of necessity, it could be done.
view fvlaura's profile
bepsf--you always say exactly what I am thinking! (In this case, every time I drive past a McMansionville subdivision.) I get a sick feeling every time I picture the bleak future of these places, which is worse than the bleak present. I hate them.
lightspeed--that link is awesome. Did you see the (quasi-) documentary set in the exurbs of Calgary called Radiant City? It came out last year and James Howard Kuntsler was interviewed in it. It captures the mindset of people who move to places like that PERFECTLY.
view madsarah's profile
I predict that with the cost to heat/cool these huge homes that there will be a change in style of houses. People will still keep their media rooms and home offices but there will be a move away from open concept, back to old fashioned way of separate rooms with doors.
History repeats itself. My generation tore down all the walls, and the next generation will put them back up.
view peachpie's profile
Just had to clarify my earlier comment. Homes use to have many rooms and walls because it was easy to shut the door and keep the heat either in or out of the rooms you were using.
view peachpie's profile
I remember helping a friend move into a small trackhome in Orange County a couple years back, and the house was gutted because the previous tenants subdivided EVERY SINGLE ROOM INCLUDING THE GARAGE into cubicle sized rooms to house about two dozen Cambodian immigrants. These people were even cooking in their own "rooms"!!! Obviously word got out and they were evicted...
BUT, after bepsf's comment, I thought to myself.... Now, you could probably put FIFTY in one of them there McMansions!
view btoddster's profile
I think that McMansion popularity will go down for a while as we sort out the economy, energy crisis, environmental crisis, etc. Then, once we become more optimistic again, we will revert back to our bad habits. It seems to be in our DNA to want more stuff.
view hejiranyc's profile
Regarding open vs. closed plan layouts:
Passive solar heating (not solar panels, just good design) requires an open plan layout for heating. Closed rooms prevents the flow of heat from the sun absorbed by thermal mass.
Simple idea: more south-facing windows, no north-facing windows. Lots of insulation. Concrete floor, wall, or other dense material to absorb solar heat in the day to release at night.
Closed layouts are indeed better for conventional heating, but let's get creative here, if your particular climate allows.
Here in sunny Winnipeg, it's a pretty sound idea for new home construction.
view jac7890's profile
haha, yes we also recently looked at a "duplex" in a rougher area filled with russian immigrants -- they crammed 7 bedrooms, 4 baths, and two kitchens into less than 2000 sq. ft.
view jac7890's profile