Could always be worse. You could be in Dubai, where the threat of debtor's prison has people fleeing in droves.

I think this ideas espoused in the article are pretty absurd. True, NYC has other industries, but ultimately they were tied to the wellbeing of the financial sector. Without big-time earners, luxury brands/fashion suffer terribly. Ad revenue goes way down in a recession, which hits Madison Ave. We all know that print media is in the toilet, and much of their livelihood depended on the peddling of aspirational luxury brand advertisements which were bought mostly by big-time Wall St. earners. Even the entertainment industry is taking a big hit due to illegal downloading and "alternative media." If anything NYC is a lot like Detroit- they are both ruled by the unions. Just like GM, NYC is drowning in debt created by union wages, rules and retirement benefits of city employees. And now that the Wall Street spigot has been shut off, who's going to pay for all of these entitlements? Oh, right... just increase the tax on the wealthy, who are already taxed at the highest rate in the nation. Then once the wealthy flee NYC, who's going to be left to pay for all of the liberal-minded entitlement programs, aka, welfare, that has been sucking the city dry for decades? Al Sharpton?

In a nutshell, I think NYC is poised to be in dire straits like everywhere else. The only really good things going for it are its appeal as a tourist destination and its excellent (but terribly aged) infrastructure. But is that enough to avert gloom times? I would have to say, "no."

I think it's time to re-read "Atlas Shrugged".

I agree with hejiranyc that many of NYC's "sustainable" industries are probably going to face tough times. The entertainment industry will be hit VERY hard if Gov. Patterson decides to stop offering tax breaks to film and TV productions based in New York. The current tax break program has run out of money and the state legislators are still trying to figure out if they're going to add extra money to the program (this has to be decided no later than mid-late April). Neighboring states have tax break programs and many productions could cross the borders.

Even NYC's tourism industry could take a hit if shows and movies stop filming here...say what you will about Sex & the City, but the show created a new interest in the city and many tourists have flocked to areas showcased in episodes.

I grew up here. I just saw the first subway car graffiti I've seen since '90 or so. That is always a sure sign of things to come. That, and women getting mugged in broad daylight in the West Village.

@hejiranyc: right on!

Like London, NYC is doomed

No surprise, hejira, that you are quick to jump on the doom and gloom bandwagon.

No surprise, patrick, that you are all glitter dust and unicorns.

hejiranyc,

You are extremely prejudiced against the working and middle class. I know rich you are not because the rich have enough sense to keep their mouths shut to avoid the spot light on them when they are part of the problem. So once again, an unfortunate misinformed and misguided paranoid shadow speaks its mind against its own self interest. Ignorance is a dangerous force that battles relentlessly against reality.

interesting article. But sadly ironic to me because most of my friends who still live in or around the nyc area have either been axed or feel it coming.

Well of course the Atlantic is going to do an article about how much better New York is than every other city. Typical New York supremacy.
New York isn't the only city in the world with a large "creative class" population (to use a Richard Florida term).
And Seriously, I'm with Patrick. Enough with the doom and gloom. Yes it will be a bit of a bumpy road for a while (thank you very much free market capitalists!). But in the end, the only things that will have changed are that people who shouldn't have been given loans to buy homes won't have those homes anymore and the investor class will have to be more responsible and think about the long term and live with a few rules that should work in everyone's favor.
Those of us who work in industries that actually produce real things can continue making glitter dusted unicorns and live happily ever after.

NY is a great city because of its unions, as we saw in 9-11 and in the great rescue by Captain Sully and the boat workers who came to his aid.

It is because of unions we are not like West Virginia. Alabama, or Dubai. If hejiranyc really believes that unions and not greedy investment bankers and real estate speculators are "bleeding NY dry", let him go live in one of those places.

I live in New York, and feel the pain of recession. Soho is practically empty on late evenings, big designers have "Clearance" stamped all over their stores, and more big designers are having sample sales. My husband survived the Lehman crash, where he worked for 7 years and lost ALL his stock. Everyone is saving; restaurants in some parts of the city are closing down; some of my friends in finance are out of a job and looking but facing challenges. But yes there are still people wining and dining in expensive places - I see bars still full of people, and even on a weekday some pricey restaurants are full. Really don't know who these people are, probably the handful adding something to the economy.

I completely agree with hejiranyc. The medium-rich are paying the highest taxes - up to 40%; what's next, 50%? Basically medium-rich people are working twice as much for half the salary, 40% of which is paid in stock. Its the very rich that are well off because they have a lot of money saved up, and the not-so-rich who don't pay high taxes and get all the benefits. The middle ones are getting screwed.

Yes, the not-so-rich have ALL the benefits of being poor or working class. Until I see the medium-rich or even the "middle ones" volunteering to trade places with them, I will not put much stock in these self-pitying wails from the well-off.

Suggestion: Let's get back to apt design and living.

I majored in Urban Studies here in NYC, and I cringe daily at the nonsense I read on Gothamist, Curbed and other sites. AT is usually my respite from all that ignorance and nonsense.

"But in the end, the only things that will have changed are that people who shouldn't have been given loans to buy homes won't have those homes anymore and the investor class will have to be more responsible and think about the long term and live with a few rules that should work in everyone's favor."

Are you kidding me? Do you know how many people are losing their jobs as a result of state budget cuts alone (across the country)? Talking about jobs ranging basic administrative to health care and social services. Maybe some of these will be saved by bailout funding, but it is likely to be very few. People I know who have lost their jobs or are at risk of losing them are in fields ranging from retail, to web development, to social services for people with disabilities, to horticulture! Our economy isn't divided up into nice little separate sectors, it is all deeply interconnected, and when the shit hits the fan for one industry it is quite likely to spray everywhere else, as well. Plenty of responsible people that didn't make any gambles with their jobs or in the housing market are losing their job security, health insurance, and savings as a result of all this. If the economy bounces back, which I hope it does, many will recoup their loses and be just fine, but at least small percentage wont be so fortunate, and may suffer from the impact for quite some time.

I was enjoying hejiranyc's commentary until suddenly the collapse of the financial industry was heaped on the shoulders of union workers. Come again?

It reminds me of Michael Eisner when he ran ABC/Disney. It seems Mr. Eisner felt that unions were preventing Disney from making sufficient profit - all the while he was complaining, he took home a compensation package larger than the entire production budget for every single tv show produced by the company that year - combined! It doesn't take a genius to figure out the problem isn't the union janitor's 30 cent an hour raise that is the source of the problem.

I really loved this article. The discussion of a new creativity-based economy is something that I've been thinking about since the crash began. We all have an opportunity here to throw away some of the ideas of the past and look towards a new and greater future. Many of those lessons can be learned from our grandparents who lived during the Depression. My grandfather started his own business afterwards and became his own self-made man, founded his own company, and he's not a wealthy man, but he is a happy one driven by his own ideas and ambitions.

We are heading into an amazing transition in this country. There will be a lot of negatives, but I think some positives too, and I do think New York will be the center of a whole new economy - one that is hopefully once again driven by our talents as Americans rather than our wallets.

In the past 5 months I've noticed a lot more for rent signs on storefronts everywhere.

as a student with an internship and speaking with my school because of the recession we can all kiss getting a job offer at the end of it goodbye. they told us years ago you had like a 60% chance of getting an offer. now its like 5%. :(

I don't think the point of the article was that everything in NYC will be super-awesome while the rest of the country is standing on soup lines. I think the point was that big and largely permanent changes to the American way of life are going to result from this whole situation, and NYC is uniquely poised (for an American city) to allow people to make those changes. In many ways it has been allowing (or requiring) people to make those changes for years, if not decades.

We get lectured and lectured about the "American way of life" and how New York isn't it. The American Way is (allegedly) green-grass yards; and cars big enough that you don't have to ever unload your sports gear from them; and wide-aisled supermarkets that sell everything you could ever want for absurdly cheap prices. Those assumptions and standards are not sustainable -- not just environmentally but financially -- and IMO their death is long overdue. And if the death of so many aspects of the alleged American way of living is imminent, then where better to be than a city that has never really accepted those standards? NYC has built a comfortable and attractive way of life out of things most Americans consider 'last resorts,' the refuge of those who can't afford anything better -- but it has integrated them into a life that many people really want to live. That so many other cities have treated these things as last resorts means that it will be harder for them to adapt their habits once it's finally time to "resort" to such things as public transportation and higher-density living.

I moved to NYC as a kid the year New York went bankrupt and Ford refused to bail out the city. You didn't know whether the fire department would actually show up if you had a fire. Garbage was all over the streets. You couldn't walk on Madison Avenue(!) after dark without fear of getting mugged.

And yet it was a wonderful creative city where writers and artists and musicians could afford to live. I still miss those days, before the city became a Sex and the City theme park with $15 martinis and $600 shoes.